Apple's ‘Michael Jordan Days’ May Be Over
Showing posts with label Daily Ticker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daily Ticker. Show all posts
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Keith Jurow: House Prices Are Nowhere Near A Bottom
Jurow bases his conclusion primarily on concerns about so-called "shadow inventory"--a huge number of houses that will eventually be on the market but aren't counted in current inventory figures. For example, a large number of households are behind on their mortgages or have stopped paying their mortgages, Jurow says, but the banks have yet to foreclose. When banks are finally forced to foreclose, Jurow says, and these houses hit the market, they will cause significant additional price declines. Additionally, some homeowners who want to sell are waiting for price increases. When they finally give up and put their houses on the market, Jurow says, this will add additional supply.
Barry Ritholtz: Housing Stable but not in ‘Full-Blown Recovery’
"The problem with housing continues to be it's not an organic recovery, or stabilization, to use a better word. The [Federal Reserve has] driven rates down to inconceivable levels."
Jim Rickards: ‘Be Careful What You Wish for’ Regarding Fiscal Cliff
"There are only bad outcomes. Taxes are going up no matter what. It's just a question about whether they go up for everybody [failure to agree] or target certain people [agreement]. Either way you're talking about a tax increase in the middle of a depression."
The Fed Will Keep Printing Until the Dollar Gets Weaker
Mideast Is a Much Bigger Worry Than Europe
Rickards is much more optimistic about the situation in Europe than the Mideast. He sees three main reasons to be hopeful about Europe:
"The U.S., Europe and China all have to go through major structural adjustments. The difference is Europe is stepping up to the plate and doing it. The U.S. and China are still in denial."
The Fed Will Keep Printing Until the Dollar Gets Weaker
Mideast Is a Much Bigger Worry Than Europe
Rickards is much more optimistic about the situation in Europe than the Mideast. He sees three main reasons to be hopeful about Europe:
- China is eager to invest in Europe and diversify its foreign exchange holdings.
- Young people in Europe are willing to work for less than their older counterparts.
- Germany, an export powerhouse for more than 40 years, has finally accepted the necessity of slightly higher inflation.
"The U.S., Europe and China all have to go through major structural adjustments. The difference is Europe is stepping up to the plate and doing it. The U.S. and China are still in denial."
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Jim Rickards: Geithner “Aided and Abetted” LIBOR Crimes
The LIBOR scandal is "so big I don't think people have got their minds around it. This is the largest financial scandal I've seen in my career."
"Without nominal GDP growth you're never going to pay off the debt," Rickards says, suggesting the Fed would be willing to tolerate -- and even encourage -- higher inflation in order to give nominal GDP a boost. "The Fed in effect [will be] throwing in the towel on inflation."
"Without nominal GDP growth you're never going to pay off the debt," Rickards says, suggesting the Fed would be willing to tolerate -- and even encourage -- higher inflation in order to give nominal GDP a boost. "The Fed in effect [will be] throwing in the towel on inflation."
Howard Davidowitz: Bill Ackman Should Stop Trying to Run Companies
Howard Davidowitz is one of the most entertaining guys on TYV and he doesn't disappoint here:
"I think it is crazy and when Bill Ackman attempted this in Target he got decimated"
"I give [him] full credit for [his] brain power and ability to recognize value, but you cannot mix that up with running a business."
"[J.C.] Penney is in the process of … destroying itself and Bill Ackman is actively involved, decimating one of America's greatest and oldest department stores"
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Charles Nenner: Stocks to Bottom This Week
Equities:
Nenner sees a cyclical low coming in the next few days. He's a buyer anywhere from 1,280 to 1,230 on the S&P 500 but cautions those who are looking for a chance to buy and hold profitably.
"People looking for major moves are going to be disappointed. Timing and trading are key as stocks are going to be locked into a 5-10% range for an extended period.
Gold:
Nenner's downside target for gold is $1375 to $1325 but he's a buyer in size there; his long-term target remains $2,500.
Bonds:
"First people lost their shirts on the stock market then the gold market. I'm afraid that now they're going to lose a lot of money on their bond positions."
Nenner sees a cyclical low coming in the next few days. He's a buyer anywhere from 1,280 to 1,230 on the S&P 500 but cautions those who are looking for a chance to buy and hold profitably.
"People looking for major moves are going to be disappointed. Timing and trading are key as stocks are going to be locked into a 5-10% range for an extended period.
Gold:
Nenner's downside target for gold is $1375 to $1325 but he's a buyer in size there; his long-term target remains $2,500.
Bonds:
"First people lost their shirts on the stock market then the gold market. I'm afraid that now they're going to lose a lot of money on their bond positions."
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Howard Davidowitz on JC Penney's "crackpot" CEO
Howard Davidowitz is a retail genius, and never, ever boring.
[On CEO Ron Johnson] "He's caused incalculable damage. The customers are everything. They don't know what the hell he's doing."
[On CEO Ron Johnson] "He's caused incalculable damage. The customers are everything. They don't know what the hell he's doing."
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: We’re Still Headed For Recession
The US will enter a recession by the end of 2012, Achuthan says, and that recession will include at least one quarter of negative GDP. This recession will most likely be mild relative to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, but it could end up being a lot worse. In support of this ongoing bearishness, Achuthan points to his index, which is once again turning negative.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Zac Bissonnette: How To Be Richer And Smarter Than Your Parents
- FICO Scores Really Don't Matter
- Forget New, Buy Used
- Stop Watching TV
- Learn to say "no" to yourself at least once a day, especially when it comes to impulse buys, and understand that if you can't afford it, you don't deserve it.
- Buy used or cheap clothes, because expensive clothes do not always translate into better quality. And wash your garments in cold water to make them last longer.
- Take up hobbies that do not cost much money and are not materialistic, like gardening.
- Serve cheap, discount store wine, at parties and do not buy imported wines, which can sometimes cost up to 50 percent more.
- Buy groceries on-line or in bulk and buy a slow-cooker to prepare meals.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Ruchir Sharma: BRICs story is played out
Ruchir Sharma is the author of Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles and also head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley.
"If you look at the history of investing, you find there's always some theme that captures the imagination in a particular decade, and then it runs out of gas the following decades."
On China:
People tend to overlook the fact that China, with a per capita income of about $6,000, has already become a middle income country. "And it's much harder to grow from a large base." Thirty years of a one-child policy have left China with a demographic imbalance. Rapid urbanization has been a huge driver of growth. But now, 50 percent of Chinese people already live in urban areas. "I'm not saying China is going to collapse, but it can't keep growing out at 8 percent. China is maturing as an economy and needs to slow down."
On India:
There's a lot of hope and promise in India, but India's economy is hamstrung by political corruption and poor infrastructure, and growth rate has settled into a 6-7% growth band.
On Brazil:
In 2011, Brazil turned in an unspectacular performance of about 3% growth. Sharma sees Brazil's struggles continuing, in part because it has an expensive currency. "That's making their industries uncompetitive"
On Russia:
Even with the continuing commodity boom, Russia's economy only managed to grow about 4% in 2011. He's also concerned about the huge concentration of wealth there with a disproportionate number of billionaires. With a Chinese slowdown, commodity economies will struggle going forward. Sharma's Four Seasons Index (how much it costs to stay at a posh Four Seasons Hotel) shows that Brazil and Russia are two of the most expensive emerging markets in terms of exchange rates.
"If you look at the history of investing, you find there's always some theme that captures the imagination in a particular decade, and then it runs out of gas the following decades."
On China:
People tend to overlook the fact that China, with a per capita income of about $6,000, has already become a middle income country. "And it's much harder to grow from a large base." Thirty years of a one-child policy have left China with a demographic imbalance. Rapid urbanization has been a huge driver of growth. But now, 50 percent of Chinese people already live in urban areas. "I'm not saying China is going to collapse, but it can't keep growing out at 8 percent. China is maturing as an economy and needs to slow down."
On India:
There's a lot of hope and promise in India, but India's economy is hamstrung by political corruption and poor infrastructure, and growth rate has settled into a 6-7% growth band.
On Brazil:
In 2011, Brazil turned in an unspectacular performance of about 3% growth. Sharma sees Brazil's struggles continuing, in part because it has an expensive currency. "That's making their industries uncompetitive"
On Russia:
Even with the continuing commodity boom, Russia's economy only managed to grow about 4% in 2011. He's also concerned about the huge concentration of wealth there with a disproportionate number of billionaires. With a Chinese slowdown, commodity economies will struggle going forward. Sharma's Four Seasons Index (how much it costs to stay at a posh Four Seasons Hotel) shows that Brazil and Russia are two of the most expensive emerging markets in terms of exchange rates.
Josh Barro on the State Pension Crisis
Barro notes that unfunded state pension and health care liabilities of $4 trillion exceed the total amount of bond debt outstanding from states and localities of $3 trillion!
Edward Luce: America Is Headed Toward An Age Of Descent
Edward Luce, the chief U.S. columnist for the Financial Times, is the author of Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent. While not predicting America's collapse, Luce is "skeptical about America's ability to sharply reverse her fortunes."
Friday, March 23, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Barry Ritholtz remains skeptical about the US consumer
"I'm pretty confident the calls we've been making on retail have been dead right. The consumer doesn't have access to credit. They don't have a lot of pent up demand and they are in the process of deleveraging."
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Peter Kiernan: America at Risk of ‘Becoming China’s Bitch!’
From Peter Kiernan, author of the provocatively-named book, "Becoming China's Bitch":
"Paranoia is appropriate for us in relation to China.What we are facing is nothing less than a test of American independence."
"They have built a replacement [for U.S. spending]; what have we done to replace that lending capability? Codependent relationships rarely last forever and they don't end pretty."
"Paranoia is appropriate for us in relation to China.What we are facing is nothing less than a test of American independence."
"They have built a replacement [for U.S. spending]; what have we done to replace that lending capability? Codependent relationships rarely last forever and they don't end pretty."
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