Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Harry Dent sees Dow 3,000

Harry Dent shares his bearish outlook on the Dow. "The sentiment right now is absolutely terrible"

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Delivering Alpha 2012: Henry Kravis

KKR Co-Chairman and Co-CEO Henry Kravis is interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorkin at the "Delivering Alpha" conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor on July 18, 2012 in New York City. This is an unedited video of the complete event.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Ruchir Sharma: 10 reasons to believe in China slowdown story

Sharma, head of EM at Morgan Stanley, points out in this must-read article that China is now vulnerable to what he calls "middle-income deceleration," namely:
"China last year passed the $5,000 per-capita-income level, the same level (inflation-adjusted) at which all miracle economies - Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - slowed, generally by about four percentage points."

Another interesting observation is that China's fixed asset investment "hit an astonishing 50% of GDP - an unprecedented and unsustainable level for any major economy. China was spending more on infrastructure - pouring more concrete - than the US and Europe combined."

Sharma points out that China's wave of urbanizatiopn has largely run its course. To wit, "according to an early 2011 estimate from Capital Economics, there were only about 15 million people still underemployed in rural areas."

Demographics is another area of concern:
"Only five million Chinese will enter the core working ages of 35-54 this decade, down from 90 million during 2000-10."

Contrary to most analysst, Sharma believes that China also has a debt problem:
" ... the debt of households and corporations amounts to 130% of GDP - nearly 200% if the murky shadow banking sector is included."

"... In response to the crisis of 2008, China opened the credit tap so wide that there is now more money in circulation in China ($10 trillion) than in the US ($8 trillion)."

Finally, it is widely known that China is planning to shift to a consumption-based economy, but Sharma points out that "domestic consumption has been growing at an annual average of 9% for decades, which is a full percentage point faster than the average rate in Japan, and about the same as the rate in Taiwan, during their boom decades. Chinese consumption has been falling as a share of GDP only because investment has been growing even faster... The bottom line: if investment has to slow, and consumption can't grow much faster, then the overall economy has to downshift to a slower growth plane."

Read the full article: 10 reasons to believe in China slowdown story

BofA: Italy Has Most Reasons to Leave Euro

Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G-10 currency strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, discusses the Italy's incentive to leave the euro and his forecast for the single currency.

Richard Clarida Says Policy Gridlock Largest Challenge

Richard Clarida, global strategic adviser at Pimco, talks about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's congressional testimony this week, the outlook for Fed monetary policy and economic policy gridlock in Washington.

Morgan Creek: How to Tap Into Long/Short Hedge Funds

Morgan Creek Capital Management's Mark Yusko talks about hedge funds and his investment strategy.

Lloyd Blankfein on Bloomberg

Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs , talks at the Economic Club in Washington about the U.S. economy and financial regulation, the congressional probe of banks suspected of manipulating Libor, and the outlook for the European Union.

Nokia Looks Like a Company in Decline

"Nokia looks like it is a company in decline, whether it is terminal decline? They need to come up with a clear strategy, they have just missed so many opportunities along the way." Rupert Nathan, fund manager of Fat Prophets, told CNBC in response to Nokia's quarter two earnings.

Philippe Laffont's top tech picks

Philippe Laffont, Coatue Management founder & portfolio manager, discusses why he likes Apple, Amazon and Google; the outlook on Facebook; and why Netflix is a very controversial trade.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Bruce Richards (Marathon) on the search for yield

Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management co-founder, provides perspective on the global credit crisis and where he is finding investment opportunities in bonds.

OTPP on Private Equity Returns

James Leech, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) president & CEO, discusses returns in private equity and where he is finding investment opportunities.

Leon Cooperman speaks at Delivering Alpha

Leon "the lion" Cooperman of Omega Advisors delivers some ideas.

Nathan Sandler: Alpha in Emerging Markets

Nathan "Nate Dogg" Sandler, co-founder of ICE Canyon, explains where to find the "sweet spot" when investing in emerging markets. Of course, that "sweet spot" provided quite elusive for the firm in 2008.

Bill Ackman on his P&G position

Roubini: Euro crisis a "slow motion train wreck"

Jim Chanos: Hewlett Packard 'Ultimate Value Trap'

"What they will tell you is that the stock is cheap, with a forward P/E of 5, an enterprise value to EBIT of roughly 6 times, and great free cash flow, free cash flow yield of 10.7% using the latest 12 month figures, and a company that’s buying back lots of stock. All the classic signs of a great value situation, hopefully. There’s a fly in the ointment. In the case of Hewlett-Packard and a number of other well-known marquee technology companies, they are hiding their R&D spending through acquisitions. This is an important concept that a lot of people miss. If you look at HP’s revenue stream, it’s basically flat over the past four or five years, their cash flow is basically flat over the past four or five years. But they have done $36 billion in acquisitions over that time frame. Those acquisitions have enabled them to maintain a revenue base and see a declining cash flow base. Those are maintenance capital expenditures or maintenance R&D hidden as acquisitions ... In addition, the balance sheet has been destroyed here."

“People will still buy PCs. It just won’t be a very profitable business”

Richard Perry on Mortgages

Richard Perry, Perry Capital CEO, discusses how the U.S. economy can get a boost by opening up the mortgage markets again and putting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back on stable ground.

Richard Perry Sees Profit Potential in Europe

Richard Perry, Perry Capital CEO, discusses managing risk; how to profit from sovereign debt problems in Europe; and the future of the euro.

Paul Donovan: 1930's Wasn't a Buying Opportunity

Paul Donovan, MD, deputy head of global economics at UBS: "We are going through one of the biggest structural changes that we have seen in the global economy since the 1971-73 process, the problem is predicting the outcome from this as we are in a far more politicized world"

Scott Kalb on Sovereign Wealth Funds

Discussing where to find investment opportunities in Europe and the US, with Scott Kalb, former CIO of Korea Investment Corporation (KIC).

Fund Manager Sees Limited Lending Growth in West

Inigo Lecubarri, portfolio manager at the Abaco Financials Fund, discusses the outlook for the banking industry

Gary Shilling on Bernanke Testimony, US Retail Sales

Volcker Says Fed Has `No Magic Bullets'

“I don’t believe we’re headed back into a recession, but we’ve been for some years now stuck in a kind of slow-growth pattern”

“We've inherited a very difficult situation, not unique to the United States”

Ben Bernanke doesn’t have a “magic bullet to solve these real problems”

“There’s been too much borrowing, too much indebtedness, too much leverage in our economy and the world economy. Sometimes it takes years to work itself out”

US Is Stuck in Slow Growth Pattern

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Gordon Chang: China’s Economy Has Completely Flatlined

Jim Rickards: Geithner “Aided and Abetted” LIBOR Crimes

The LIBOR scandal is "so big I don't think people have got their minds around it. This is the largest financial scandal I've seen in my career."

"Without nominal GDP growth you're never going to pay off the debt," Rickards says, suggesting the Fed would be willing to tolerate -- and even encourage -- higher inflation in order to give nominal GDP a boost. "The Fed in effect [will be] throwing in the towel on inflation."

Marc Faber Reacts to China's GDP

Howard Davidowitz: Bill Ackman Should Stop Trying to Run Companies

Howard Davidowitz is one of the most entertaining guys on TYV and he doesn't disappoint here:

"I think it is crazy and when Bill Ackman attempted this in Target he got decimated"

"I give [him] full credit for [his] brain power and ability to recognize value, but you cannot mix that up with running a business."

"[J.C.] Penney is in the process of … destroying itself and Bill Ackman is actively involved, decimating one of America's greatest and oldest department stores"

Pat Dorsey on the earnings outlook

Pat Dorsey, President, Sanibel Captiva Investment Advisers says he will be looking out for comments on Europe and China from companies reporting earnings this week.

EA CEO Bullish on Digital

John Riccitiello, Electronic Arts CEO, says there's a perception among investors that the gaming industry is tough to invest in right now - but he adds that the company is growing its digital business.

'Black Swan' Hedging Strategies

Garth Friesen, AVM/III principal & co-CIO, explains how investors can prepare for a financial storm in today's volatile markets.

One-On-One with Marc Andreessen

In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC's Julia Boorstin, venture capitalist, Marc Andreesen reveals his thoughts on Yahoo's newly appointed CEO; Facebook's IPO; listing on the Nasdaq; trading in the secondary markets; and the politics of regulations.

David Rosenberg on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack

Rosenberg recommends "reliable dividend growth and dividend yield" via Canadian and US Preferred shares, Energy infrastructure, and Utilities

Jason Trennert on Goldman Sachs

Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, and William Cohan, author of "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World" and a Bloomberg View columnist, talk about Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s second-quarter earnings released today and the outlook for Wall Street firms. Goldman said net income slid 11 percent to $962 million, or $1.78 a share.

David Stockman: We're Heading Toward Recession

John Mauldin on Yen, Euro, Fed, Strategy

Friday, July 13, 2012

Roger McNamee on Tech's Next Big Thing

Elevation Partners Co-founder Roger McNamee talks about how Facebook's IPO exposed `extreme corruption' in the markets, his outlook for mobile devices and the internet, the digital music revolution and explains why Apple has to allow commerce in and out of their App Store.

Neil Jones (Mizuho): Hunt for Safe Havens in Europe

Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank, discusses investment strategy in Europe.

Long Warren Buffet Interview on Bloomberg

Warren Buffett talks about JPMorgan’s $4.4B trading loss and the U.S. banking industry. He also discusses his investment strategy and holdings, the U.S. economy and housing market, and the outlook for the euro.

On Jamie Dimon: I've had enough mistakes of my own that I'm very forgiving when something like that happens

JPMorgan: Italy in Much Better Shape Than Spain

Geoff Lewis, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management: "The fundamentals of the Italian economy are probably in better shape than those of Spain, it is much less reliant on oversees borrowers to fund its debt and it doesn't have the large budget deficit either, but in macro-economic terms Moody was probably justified"

Gordon Chang: China Could See Zero Growth

Noted China bear Gordon Chang, Author of "The Coming Collapse of China" argues that contrary to government data, China's economy is slower much faster than expected.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Jim Grant on CNBC

Some great quotes from bow-tie fan Jim Grant who penned a must-read article on Gold in CFA Magazine (The Golden Rule):

"I'm a glass half empty guy"
"The Fed is not out of bullets, but the problem is its gun shoots backwards"
"The trouble with Europe is they work 5 hours a day"

And, finally, an investment recommendation:
"You plant black walnut trees, and in 30 years they flower to $1000 each, and you pay 5 bucks for them. That's a zero coupon tree. That's where you get yield."

Greenspan: US Economy, Fed Stimulus & Obamacare

Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan on whether the U.S. economy is in a recession, if more Fed action is necessary, and what effect Obamacare has had on the economy. As always, the wise investor should take the opposite side of what Easy Al believes.

Francesco Bongiovanni: Is 'Project Europe' Worth Saving?

Francesco Bongiovanni, the author of the book, "The Decline & Fall of Europe" explains why he thinks the political and economic integration needs to be preserved. He adds that European leaders are not ready to make the tough decisions needed to save the euro zone.

Greenspan: Think In Terms of Two Separate Economies

Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan, worst Fed Chairman ever, on whether the US economy is in a recession right now. "Think in terms of two separate economies--one is 92% of the GDP, and it's doing reasonably well, and the other 8% is largely long-lived assets"

BRIC Countries Need a New Recipe for Growth

Adolfo Laurenti, Deputy Chief Economist & MD, Mesirow Financial, says BRIC economies face structural changes and that they need a new recipe for growth.

Spanish Govt at Risk From Austerity Cuts?

Antonio Barroso, Western Europe analyst at the Eurasia Group: "Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is the exception to the weak governments in the periphery, he has a single party ruling with an absolute majority so he can pass whatever measures he wants to pass in parliament and he has a very weak opposition"

Buffett Sees Pick-Up in Residential Housing

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO, discusses the outlook on the U.S. economy; the decline in Europe over the past several months; and a pick-up in the homebuilders space, adding a strong comeback in housing is necessary for an overall recovery.

Buffett on Europe's 'Fundamentally Flawed System'

Europe is trying to put patches on something that leaks, says Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO, commenting on the EU's current fiscal problems, adding "the system cannot survive" the way it is currently designed. Buffett also weighs in on the Libor rate scandal and JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, calling him "one of the best bankers in the world," despite the company's huge trading losses.

Gus Sauter: French Bonds Secure Over Short Term

Gus Sauter, CEO at Vanguard Group, talks about asset allocation, European bonds and the Chinese economy.

Howard Marks on Strategy, Europe, Real Estate

Howard Marks, chairman of Oaktree Capital, talks about Europe’s debt crisis, the global economy and investment strategy

Dean Curnutt: Amount of Systemic Risk Is Staggeriing

Dean Curnutt, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, talks about the outlook for U.S. markets and global central bank policies.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Mohnish Pabrai presentation

An oldie (from Feb 2012) but a goodie: Mohnish Pabrai speaks at the Ivey School of Business in Ontario, Canada which has a noted center for value investing.

Joe Weisenthal: Spain's Austerity Won't Affect Markets

Joe Weisenthal, the deputy editor of Business Insider, commented for CNBC on the announcement of Spain's tax hikes: "In theory, Spain taking these austerity measures is what the markets want to see, but in practice it seems that every time a country has done anything like this they're digging their hole deeper."

Brazilian FX Policy is Very Incoherent: Strategist

Maya Bhandari, the director of global macro strategy at Citi, commented for CNBC on the fact that the Brazilian Central Bank is set to cut rates again as recovery falters. She said that the Brazilian currency policy is very incoherent, and that the Brazilian Real seems to be oversold.

Andy Xie: Australia Could Become the Next Spain

Andy Xie, Independent Economist says Australia could be the next Spain if its property bubble bursts. He thinks high foreign net debt and Australia's dependence on China could tip the country into recession.

Bethany McLean on Goldman Sachs

Bethany McLean, Vanity Fair contributing editor, explains why Goldman investors may soon become the company's biggest critics now that the stock is down 30% over the past year and trades for 0.7 times book value.

From her column Should Goldman Sachs go out of business:
One possibility is that the black-box nature of Goldman Sachs is no longer acceptable to investors, in which case Goldman could work to make itself more transparent - a Lucite box!

On the opportunity:
Goldman executives have argued that even if Europe - European banks in particular - do need to delever, there could be a silver lining, which is that companies in Europe, which traditionally have relied upon loans from banks, will now instead sell debt in the capital markets, thereby spelling opportunity for firms like Goldman. There's also an argument that while Goldman's return on equity of 12 percent in the first quarter (which, in fairness, was a big improvement on the 3.7 percent Goldman posted in 2011) is a fraction of the stunning 40 percent returns it posted at the peak, a 12 percent return on equity, if sustainable, is not so terrible in a zero-interest-rate world.

Krugman on How to "End This Depression Now"

Paul Krugman, "End This Depression Now!" author, discusses the financial crisis that triggered the greatest downturn since the Great Depression, and offers ways to move forward.

Leo Hindrey on Facebook, RIM, News Corp, Economy

Leo Hindery, managing director at InterMedia Partners, talks about Facebook, News Corp, and Research in Motion

Bank of America's Misra on Bonds, Central Banks

Priya Misra, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, talks about the outlook for global bond markets and central bank policies.

Jack McCallum discusses the Dream Team

Sports writer Jack McCallum talks about his book "Dream Team" which chronicles the 1992 U.S. men's Olympic basketball team which had a roster consisting of the NBA's best players at the time.

Chris Whalen: Bank Executives Not `Bad People'

Christopher Whalen, a senior managing director at Tangent Capital and author of "Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream," talks about the outlook for JPMorgan'searnings report on July 13 and the financial industry.

Byron Wien: S&P May Top 1400 This Year

Steve Drobny on Hedge-Fund Investment Strategy

Steven Drobny, co-founder of Drobny Global Advisors, talks about investor sentiment and strategy

Passin on Investing in Kenya, Mongolia, North Korea

James Passin, fund manager and co-founder of Firebird Management LLC, discusses investment opportunities in "exotic" frontier markets. Passin speaks with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” Steve Drobny of Drobny Asset Management also speaks.

Ping Pong Phenom Takes a Swing at Buffett, Gates

Sixteen-year-old Ariel Hsing has her sites on the London Olympics, where she'll represent the U.S. women's table tennis team. But earlier this year, the California native was focused on trouncing Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and others at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Dan Alpert: China Slowdown Is Deflationary to US

Europe Has Japan-Like Characteristics

Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS AG, talks about the euro region's debt crisis.

Rogers Says World Needs Euro to Compete With Dollar

David Rosenberg: Fiscal Cliff Risks Recession

Carl Icahn on Forest Labs, Navistar, Chesapeake

ECRI: U.S. Economy Is in Recession!

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI reiterates his recession call. The ECRI believes that recession has already started.

Gartman's Natural Gas Plays

Natural gas futures are rebounding 4 percent today since Friday's sharp losses, with Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter. "If you're going to make a bet on nat gas, make a bet on nat gas via Cheniere Energy"

The 'Freakonomics of Reality'

Stephen Dubner, "Freakonomics" co-author, discusses the current economic climate, with the "Squawk Box" news crew, and Tom Stemberg, Staples co-founder & former CEO.

Buy Nokia on Weakness?

Nokia shares have dropped to levels not seen since 1996, and Jamie Townsend, Town Hall Investment Research, explains why he has a "buy" rating on the stock. Amelia Bourdeau, Westpac Institutional Bank, also offers insight on whether the euro has hit bottom, and how investors should play currencies now.

David Einhorn on CNBC

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital founder, & president discusses donating his $4.3 million haul in a non-profit poker tournament for education, with Michael Brown, City Year co-founder & CEO.

Monday, July 9, 2012

David Zervos on CNBC

David Zervos, Jefferies head of interest rate strategy, and Joseph Trevisani, Worldwide Markets chief market strategist, weigh in on what to watch ahead of this week's opening bell.

Yen Is No Longer Funding Currency for Carry Trade

John Noonan, Senior FX Analyst at Thomson Reuters says that the Euro, instead of the Japanese yen, is now the funding currency for carry trade.

Investing in Myanmar, Mongolia, Mozambique

Alisher Ali, CEO of Silk Road Management says investors should get exposure to M3 countries, Myanmar, Mongolia, Mozambique, through listed commodity companies with assets there.

Myanmar: Open for Investment?

"I look upon it as a mission to discover where the help can be but also to supplement them on a number of skills they may be lacking, in order to cope with foreign investment they are going to need a corporate law structure so helping them with what we've done over here" - Lord Marland, chairman of UK Trade Ambassadors group.

Adam Parker (Morgan Stanley) sees 15% drop in S&P

Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, says earnings will disappoint. He's calling for a near 15 percent drop in the S&P by year end.

Roubini: 2013 `Storm' May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Jonathan Carmel: Germany is not a safe haven

Jonathan Carmel, portfolio manager at Carmel Asset Management, on Germany and whether it is as strong as believed.

Dennis Gartman: Earnings Will Be 'Boring Disconcerting and Sad'

Thursday, July 5, 2012

David Baran: Profiting from Japan M&A boom

David Baran, Co-Founder of Symphony Financial Partners, has over 20 years of experience investing in Asia. He has lived in Asia and Japan for nearly 3 decades and is fluent in Japanese.Baran's SFP Value Realization Fund was launched in September 2003 when Nikkei was about 9,500. The index has fallen since then, yet his fund is still up 56% after fees.

"Investors in the U.S. equity markets would be falling over themselves to invest in a company like these - net cash, strong business moat and growth prospects,"

Hear David speak about:

* The 8 reasons why management buyouts are gaining popularity
* Why you need catalysts to unlock value in Japan equities
* What investors are missing by considering Japan as an "asset class"
* How to avoid "value traps"
* Considering tail risk: Why Baran's Sinfonietta hedge fund is "geared towards a disorderly market"

(Video) Recent Jim Chanos interview

From June 26, 2012

Malaysia to Keep Rates on Hold This Year

Santitarn Sathirathai, Research Analyst at Credit Suisse said he thinks Bank Negara would rather save its ammunition for emergencies, such as if the euro zone collapsed.

Michael Cuggino likes growth stocks

"We are long-term investors," says Michael Cuggino, Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, explaining why he is "cautiously optimistic" on growth-oriented U.S. stocks

Rick Rule (Sprott): Riding the Energy Roller Coaster

Rick Rule, Sprott U.S. Holdings chairman, explains why investors in the energy sector should plan to keep a two to five year time horizon, and how a warm winter could drive natural gas prices to one dollar.

Alexander Soros on Philanthropy, George Soros

Alexander Soros, philanthropist and son of billionaire investor George Soros, talks about the Alexander Soros Foundation and his father.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Howard Davies Doubts BBA Should Carry on Overseeing Libor

Howard Davies, professor at the French School of Political Science and former deputy governor of the Bank of England, talks about Barclays Plc's involvement in the interest-rate manipulation scandal and the implications for the British Bankers’ Association, the lobby group that oversees Libor.

Marc Faber: Forget Rally, European Banks Still Sick

Greenfield: Buy Zynga, Wait on Facebook

BTIG's Rich Greenfield says Zynga has 60 million people playing its games every day

From Barron's:
BTIG Research’s Rich Greenfield and Walter Piecyk this morning were on Bloomberg TV trumpeting their out-of-favor stock picks, which include Zynga (ZNGA), on on Greenfield’s part, and Clearwire (CLWR) on Piecyk’s part.

Greenfield emphasized that Zynga is not an Internet advertising company.

What Zynga really is, more than anything else, Zynga is a data company. I really think that’s what investors miss the most. They have over 60 million people playing their games every single day. They’re capturing data on what you like and they’re literally using that data to increase the frequency of your play as well as increase how much you spend. Think of it as another form of entertainment, like television.

Piecyk said it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing if Clearwire were to end up shutting down as a wireless operator, given its spectrum holdings.

There’s a limited amount of spectrum out there, and Clearwire is sitting on a ton of it. If it does go out of business, if they don’t make debt payments, it may actually be a positive for investors throughout the capital structure, because when they auction this thing off, and they’ve got 160 megahertz of spectrum, and when AT&T (T) and Verizon [Communications (VZ)] show up, as long as the current administration doesn’t stop them from buying the spectrum, there’s a lot of value here relative to what the stock is reflecting.

Clearwire shares today are down a penny at $1.11, while Zynga stock is up 7 cents, or 1.4%, at $5.51. Clearwire shares have fallen 71% in the last 12 months, while Zynga is off 42% this year.