Thursday, May 31, 2012

Bruce Bartlett discusses the fiscal cliff

Can the government cut taxes and balance the budget at the same time? Bruce Bartlett, "The Benefit & the Burden" author, discusses ways to simplify the American tax code.

Facebook: Still Not a Buy?

The FMHR traders discuss May's market performance and Facebook's fair value, with Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business professor. "I'm not surprised at all at the shift in momentum, I'm just surprised it happened so quickly after the IPO..."

Tavakoli: Facebook IPO `Based on Hot Air'

Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, and Bloomberg's Cory Johnson talk about Facebook's IPO and the outlook for the social-networking site

Holland Says Stocks Reaching `Crescendo of Selling'

Michael Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., talks about the U.S. stock market, and the U.S. and Chinese economies.

JPMorgan Trade Discrepancy Is Shocking, Tchir Says

Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors, and William Cohan, author of "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World" and a Bloomberg View columnist, talk about JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s $2 billion trading loss.

Arnab Das: Orderly Greece Exit in Early 2013

Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics, talks about today's Irish vote on the European Union's fiscal treaty and the prospect of a Greek euro exit.

Paul Volcker Urges Overhaul of Global Monetary System

Paul Volcker was the last, and perhaps the only, central banker who did his job the way it's supposed to be done: take tough decisions for the long-term good of the nation.

Volcker Urges Governance Change to Protect Euro

Patrick Wolff: China Bubble Starting to Break

Patrick Wolff is the founder of Grandmaster Capital (yes, he is/was a chess Grandmaster) and formerly worked with another chess grandmaster, Peter Thiel, at Clarium. We find his views on China to be generic and unoriginal, but the interview is worth a listen since Wolff is one to keep an  eye on. He's young, he's smart, and he may just evolve into one of the biggest names in the industry in the future.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Ruchir Sharma: Commodity Boom Nears End

Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets & Global Macro, Morgan Stanley, says the massive commodities boom of the past decade is at its tail end, given the slowdown in one of the largest consumers, China.

Neil Shearing: Brazilian Economy Remains Highly Unbalanced

Neil Shearing is an economist at Capital Economics. "We are already in bubble territory particularly in the housing market it is wildly overvalued, the banks are becoming more reluctant to lend, even though the central bank is cutting interest rates banks are becoming increasingly reluctant to lend."

Moorad Choudhry: Need to Write Off All Greek Debt

Moorad Choudhry, head of treasury at RBS, told CNBC, "It is a hairy time at the moment if Greece was to leave the euro it would be catastrophic in many ways, so at the moment everyone is holding back whether you are an investor or a corporate there is so much uncertainty at the moment."

Marc Lasry: Detecting Diamonds in the Rough

"I'm not buying anything at par, I'm buying hopefully at a discount," says Marc Lasry, Avenue Capital chairman & CEO, discussing whether it's time to buy in Europe and where investors can find value in distressed markets

David Kotok likes US Banks

Bob Janjuah Sees S&P in 1400s `If Stars Align Perfectly'

Herro Sees Opportunities in European Financials, Japan

David Herro, chief investment officer at Harris Associates and manager of the Oakmark International Fund, discusses investment strategy.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Jason Trennert sees mild US recession in 2013

Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Trennert also discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks, trading in bond markets and his investment strategy.

Pimco’s Bosomworth Sees Signs of Bubble in Bunds Market

Andrew Bosomworth, a money manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the prospect of a bubble forming in the German government bond market. Bosomworth also discusses contagion risks associated with a Greek exit from the 17-nation euro zone and the likelihood of Spain needing a bailout.

Bill Ackman: JC Penney Sales Have Hit 'Bottom'

Ackman talks about how JC Penney's sales have "bottomed," and why he's optimistic about the company's new, and ongoing, strategy.

Bill Ackman discusses Sex, JC Penney and Canadian Pacific

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square discusses how to make money in this market and what JC Penney needs to do to turnaround its business.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Steve Keen sees a Mountain of Debt

Colombian President One-on-One

We have recently heard a lot of bullish talk on Columbia and Mexico from Latam strategists. Many people see Columbia as a future Chile. PriceSignals remains skeptical on whether COlumbia will ever get to Chile's level, but there is no doubt that this will be an important economy to monitor.

Colombia's president Juan Manueal Santos rang the opening bell at the NYSE today. CNBC's Maria Baritromo spoke to him in an exclusive interview.

"Market Masters" continued

Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist; Ken Rogoff, Harvard University professor; and Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago professor, provide perspective on the future of the European Union and the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Forecast from "Market Masters"

Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist; Ken Rogoff, Harvard University professor; and Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago professor, weigh in with their outlook on the markets and direction of the global economy, including the strength of the U.S. recovery and the looming fiscal cliff.

Tom Friedman on American's Formula for Success

"What we want America to be is the launching pad where everyone in the world would want to come to launch their 'moon shot', their Zynga, their Facebook, because we have the best infrastructure, education, immigration policies, rules and government-funded research," says Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, continuing his discussion on the formula needed to rebuild the American dream.

Rebuilding the American Dream with Tom Friedman

Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, discusses the era-defining challenges facing America, and explains why he calls himself a "frustrated optimist".

David Rosenberg: Domino effects of Greek exit not priced in

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, talks about the outlook for the global markets and investment strategy. Rosie is a refreshing change of pace from Wall Street's cheerleaders.

John Brynjolfsson on Euro Crisis, U.S. Treasuries

Marc Faber likes Gold, sees doom ahead

Should Greece exit the euro zone and is China's economy weaker than analyst suggest? Marc Faber, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, weighs in on those two scenarios and explains why he's making a move to gold.

More Activism on Horizon for Chesapeake?

Carl Icahn discloses a huge stake in Chesapeake Energy

Chinese Economy on the Brink?

A very entertaining discussion on whether China's economy is on the brink of collapse, with two China bears: Gordon Chang, Forbes columnist, and Peter Navarro, UC-Irvine business professor. I've attended a presentation with Navarro in the past and he doesn't mince his words, to say the least.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Charles Dumas: Italy Stocks More Overvalued Than Spain

Real Estate Realities

Neil Bluhm, Walton Street Capital founder; Allen Smith, Prudential Real Estate Investors CEO; and Steve LeBlanc, Texas Teachers, discuss the current real estate market and where to find attractive returns relative to fixed income.

Steve LeBlanc of Texas Teachers discusses Texas-style investing!

"We believe real estate can deliver a net 10% return to the pension plan," says Steve LeBlanc, Texas Teachers senior managing director, discussing the Texas-style of investing, and his decision to invest $3B with KKR and Apollo Global.

Steve Drobny: Pensions Haven't Recovered From 2008

Steven Drobny, co-founder of Drobny Global Advisors, talks about investor sentiment and strategy, and discusses the pension fund world.

(Older Interview) Only `Free Lunch' Is Diversification

Jim O'Neill: Greek Exit Talk May Drag on for Another Year

O'Neill, of course, created the prescient but now way over-hyped BRICs moniker.

Charles Mires Bets on Emerging Hedge Fund Managers

Charles Mires of Franklin Street Advisors talks about his FSP Emerging Manager Forensic Fund that will invest in emerging hedge-fund managers

Gary Shilling: US Recession a Possibility

Home Prices to Fall 20% on Inventories

Rare interview with Arminio Fraga (Gavea)

Arminio Fraga is a former Brazil central bank president, and runs Gavea, one of Brazil's largest hedge fund and PE firms at $7B AUM. He spoke to Bloomberg at the Rio Investors Day 2012 conference in Rio.
[See Gávea Investimentos: A shore thing]

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

David Malpass sees recession risk

Discussing their "worries" for Europe and the risk for the U.S. economy, with David Malpass, Encima Global, and Larry Kantor, Barclays.

"Until the Greek elections June 17, it is difficult to see sustained strong performance in the global stock markets"

Doug Kass on Facebook

Jonathan Golub and Keith McCullough on the market

Insights from Jonathan Golub, UBS; Keith McCullough, Hedgeye Risk Management; and Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services.

Rare interview with Philippe Laffont (Coatue Capital)

In his first interview on Bloomberg, Philippe Laffont (founder of Coatue Capital), professes his love for Equinix, Virgin Media, and Apple. He also discusses Facebook's IPO.

John Hathaway: "This Is The Bottom For Gold"

Marc Faber Says Stocks in `Significant Correction'

David Kotok on Strategy, US Economy, Europe

David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors and author of “From Bear to Bull with ETFs,” talks about investment strategy for exchange-traded funds, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the valuation of Facebook

Interview of the week: Michael Platt (BlueCrest)

Eurobonds Needed if Greece Leaves Euro, Platt Says
Michael Platt, founder of BlueCrest Capital, talks about the European debt crisis, investment strategy, and JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss. BlueCrest is one of the largest hedge funds in the world with $32B AUM.

They [JP Morgan] are not out of those positions. If we end up with a catastrophe in Europe in the short run, they’re probably not positions that anyone would want to have.”

I don’t think they could be described in any way as a hedge. I think it’s a trading loss. They deliberately put the positions on. The London whale, who has subsequently been harpooned, put the positions on.”

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Steven Romick is short Spanish banks and long Pharma

Steven Romick of First Pacific Advisors (FPA) talks about the investment environment and strategy. Jeff "please shave that thing on your face" Gundlach chimes in as well and disses on Nordstrom's.

Indian Rupee to hit 55-57

Lee Wai Tuck, Currency Markets Strategist at Forecast, says the Indian rupee will push beyond 55-57 despite RBI intervention to cap the currency.

James Altucher: Follow the Whales!

Jeff Gundlach interview on Bloomberg (May 17)

The always entertaining  Jeff Gundlach, the subject of a recent Business Week profile (accompanied by an appropriately whacky picture from back in the day), was recently on Bloomberg with Tom Keene to discuss his market views. The man might be a classic narcissist and borderline crazy, but he's also an investing genius.
Can you spot the $34 billion fund manager? Jeffrey Gundlach (third from left), who runs DoubleLine Capital, the fastest-growing mutual fund startup in history. His mid-'80s haircut is only slightly less weird than his rise to the top

Vivendi: a value play

Vivendi is a well established French media and telecom conglomerate that we have recently begun eyeing as a solid value play. The firm has a large stake in video game maker Activision, pay-TV unit Canal+ (an HBO-lite of sorts), Maroc Telecom (based in Morocco), and owns French mobile company SFR, as well as Brazilian telecom operator GVT.

Our interest was piqued by Seth Klarman's 2% ownership stake, the almost 8% dividend yield, and the company's dirt-cheap valuation. A catalyst for the unlocking of a big conglomerate discount (estimated at over 40%) is recent chatter (also here and here) of a possible break-up of the company (a rumor that the company has denied thus far), as well as the presence of activist investor Vincent Bollore.

[Disclaimer: We may initiate a position in the common stock in the near future.]

Risks include:
  • Macro and Currency - A French company that derives a large percentage of revenues from Europe
  • History of acquisitions - the firm has a history of spending free cash flows on serial acquisitions
  • Projected earnings slump into 2013

Interview with the CEO, Jean-Bernard Levy (March 1, 2012)

Vitaliy Katsenelson discusses Vivendi (and Xerox, HP)

Link to the latest investor presentation [PDF]

Recent letter to shareholders from March 27 [PDF]

Seth Klarman's Vivendi Investment Is A No Brainer (Josh Zachariah)

Undervalued French Media And Telecom Conglomerate (Mike Arnold)

Well Defined Strategy, History of Significant Dividends Make for a Bargain at Current Price (The Lonely Value Investor)

Milking A French Cash Cow (Stefan Radacovsky)

Seth Klarman “Cigar butt” (Value & Opportunity blog)

John Mauldin: One Recession Away a Bull Market

Mauldin was interviewed by the WSJ recently.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Raghuram Rajan (IMF) on the European sovereign-debt crisis

Raghuram Rajan, professor at the University of Chicago and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, talks about the European sovereign-debt crisis and global economies

Fleckenstein on U.S. Banks, Europe, Equity Picks

Hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein talks about his view on U.S. financial stocks and European equities, and some of his investment picks.

Brynjolfsson on Europe, Spain, Greece, Germany

John Brynjolfsson of Armored Wolf talks about the European sovereign debt crisis and investment strategy for currencies and copper. Time for a haircut and shave, my friend.

Dwight Anderson loves Palladium

Dwight Anderson, founder of Ospraie, talks about Westlake Chemical Corp., palladium prices and the U.S. energy industry.

Peter Diamandis on Mining Metals From Asteroids

Howard Davidowitz on JC Penney's "crackpot" CEO

Howard Davidowitz is a retail genius, and never, ever boring.

[On CEO Ron Johnson] "He's caused incalculable damage. The customers are everything. They don't know what the hell he's doing."

Meredith Whitney on JPMorgan's Mess

Whitney Tilson on Buying JC Penney

Vitaliy Katsenelson likes Microsoft and Electronic Arts

While attending Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson was interviewed by Matt Nesto of Yahoo Breakout about Microsoft, EA, and Facebook. He thinks that EA, the so-called"worst company in America" is a cheap stock.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: We’re Still Headed For Recession

The US will enter a recession by the end of 2012, Achuthan says, and that recession will include at least one quarter of negative GDP. This recession will most likely be mild relative to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, but it could end up being a lot worse. In support of this ongoing bearishness, Achuthan points to his index, which is once again turning negative.

Charles Nenner: Commodities Supercycle Is Over

Charles Nenner, executive director of the Charles Nenner Research Center, discusses the outlook for bonds, commodities and the euro.

Craig Hodges discusses small cap investments

Discussing whether a buying opportunity exists in equities, with Craig Hodges, Hodges Small Cap Fund.

Joaquim Levy discusses opportunities in Brazil

Joaquim Levy, CEO of Bradesco Asset Management, discusses Brazil's slowdown.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Daniel Kahneman's CFA institute lecture

Noted behavioral economist and Nobel prize winner, Daniel Kahneman, talks about:

- The role of intuition and reasoning in decision making
- Loss aversion
- The denial of uncertainty
- Overconfidence: Causes and consequencesDifferences between investment professionals and amateurs

[Link to Video]

Michael Pettis discusses China's role in the global economy

Pettis is a China expert.

- The trajectory and sustainability of growth in China, including analysis of trade flows, commodity costs, and domestic consumption capacity
- The growth of bad debt in China: How to resolve it, how China compares with other indebted nations, and why China will be the last major economy to emerge from the crisis
- Government reforms needed to support an economic transition, develop the private sector, and promote competition

[Link to Video]

Kit Juckes: Euro decline will accelerate

Kit Juckes, head of foreign-exchange research at Societe Generale, discusses the outlook for the euro, pound and Australian dollar and his recommendation of the Canadian dollar.

Novogratz (Fortress): 70% Chance Greece Stays in Euro

Michael "Novo" Novogratz, Fortress Investment Group principal, offers investing advice, adding that there's a 70% chance Greece will stay in the euro zone.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Jim Grant Blasts the Fed Again

Jim Grant has been all over the media recently (rightly) tearing into the Fed. Misguided and short-sighted souls may see Heli-Ben Bernanke as a courageous "hero" who is the only thing standing between us and the great abyss, but history will not be kind to his legacy (and that of his master Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan). We need a sharp, extremely painful deleveraging to correct imbalances built up over decades, and the longer we kick the can down the road, the longer and more painful this slow depression will prove to be. We are, sadly, only in the first innings here and "The Great Inflation" lies ahead.

Kyle Bass: Japan Will Follow Europe With a Debt Crisis

ECRI's Achuthan: Recession Ahead!

Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute, says a recession could begin by the middle of 2012. "It takes six months after a recession begins for people even to recognize [it]"

Brynjo discusses Inflation-Proof Investing

John "Uncle Creepy" Brynjolfsson of Armored Wolf (and a Pimco alum) discusses the best investment strategies to protect your portfolio against rising rates and inflation risk.

Joel Greenblatt on Financials

Financials are staging a comeback on Fed Chairman Bernanke's positive comments regarding the banking sector, with Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge Capital; Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital; Pete Najarian,; and CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Joel Greenblatt: Bet on the Consumer?

Discussing a 'value-weighted' investing strategy and consumer trends in retail, with Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge Capital; Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital; Pete Najarian,; and CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Lan Kwai Fong: Plans to Develop Chongqing Night Life

Allan Zeman, Chairman, Lan Kwai Fong Holdings talks about plans to build a $250 million entertainment district in Chongqing, China.

Ken Heinz (Hedge Fund Research) at SALT

Ken Heinz, President of Hedge Fund Research, tells CNBC about the biggest trends he's tracking in the hedge fund industry -- and why they matter to investors.

Jane Buchan (PAAMCO) at SALT

Jane Buchan, CEO of PAAMCO, tells CNBC why she thinks Dodd-Frank reforms could create value for investors.

Robert Koenigsberger (Gramercy) at SALT

Gramercy's Robert Koenigsberger tells CNBC why investors should be focusing on emerging markets right now -- and warns about the next shoe to drop in Europe.

Mark Okada (Highland Capital) at SALT

Mark Okada, Highland Capital, speaks to CNBC's Gary Kaminsky at this year's SALT Conference.

Eric Sprott and Pierre Lagrange discuss Gold

Discussing the trade on metal commodities, with Eric Sprott, Sprott Assett Management CEO & CIO; Pierre Lagrange, GLG Partners co-founder; Pete Najarian, co-founder; and CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Roubini: Europe a 'Slow Motion Train Wreck'

Discussing how low Treasury yields can go and sharing perspective on the euro zone crisis, with Rick Reider, BlackRock CIO of fixed income; Pierre Lagrange, GLG Partners co-founder; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Economic Research founder; and CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Roubini: 'Perfect Storm' Could Hit US Next Year

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman, explains why he's not too worried about the U.S. this year, but sees a possible "perfect storm" next year as Europe's "slow motion train wreck" continues.

Joel Greenblatt: Seeking Value in Tech

Discussing where value exists in the tech sector, with Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge Capital; Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital; Pete Najarian,; and CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Lakshman Achuthan (ECRI) reiterates recession call!

Lakshman Achuthan made waves last year with his (still) out-of-consensus recession call. Despite better US economic numbers since, he's sticking to his call.

David Rosenberg discusses Europe

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and the outlook for the U.S. economy, trade and inflation.

Marc Faber: Crash ahead?

"The market will have difficulties moving up strongly unless we have a massive QE3 and if it moves and makes the high above 1422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987."

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

(Video) An all-star cast discusses the world debt crisis

World Debt Crisis: Endgame Scenarios and What They Could Mean for Investors and the World
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
John F. Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Barry L. Ritholtz, Fusion IQ
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.

- How the effects of deleveraging will increasingly shape the economic environment and policy decisions
- What effects unforeseen outcomes and behind-the-scenes factors are having on the eurozone crisis
- How emotion and instinct can be our worst enemies in extreme market conditions

[Link to Video]

(Video) James Montier: The flaws of finance

James Montier is a member of the asset allocation team at GMO. Previously, he was co-head of global strategy at SocGen and a global equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. Mr. Montier is the author of several books, including Behavioural Investing, Value Investing, and Behavioural Finance.

This video is from the recent 65th CFA Institute Annual Conference.
- How bad models, bad behavior, bad incentives, and bad policies interact to create perfect storms for markets
- How physics envy in finance and the abuse of mathematics endanger our industry
- What effects these problems have on the finance industry
[Link to the Video]

KKR's McVey on Strategy, European Debt Crisis

Henry McVey, head of global macro and asset allocation at KKR, talks about investment strategy, global markets and the European sovereign debt crisis.

Michael Pachter on EA's earnings and outlook

Michael Pachter, a managing director at Wedbush Securities, talks about Electronic Arts' fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and outlook.

David Zervos on Euro Outlook, Strategy

David Zervos, market strategist at Jefferies, talks about the potential impact of last weekend’s elections in France and Greece on the euro zone and investors.

John Taylor: Greece Likely to Exit Euro This Summer

John Taylor of FX Concepts expects Greece to exit the euro zone by the summer. He also plans to buy Greek drachmas and take a vacation there.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Bill Gates at Berkshire Meeting

Microsoft founder Bill Gates talks to CNBC's Becky Quick at the annual Berkshire shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. He addresses Buffett's prostate cancer diagnosis, his feelings about the shareholder meeting, gold, and billionaires agreeing to give away their money.