Monday, December 17, 2012

David Tepper: Fed Betting 6% Unemployment Inflation Trigger

"The Fed is taking a chance that 6% is where you start triggering inflation. I don't know if that's right. The question is do you trigger at 7%. the big concern is ... that you're going to get inflation sooner [but] remember it's very hard in this economy to have inflation when you have a high employment rate. I'm not concerned until somewhere in the 7s ... On the way to inflation, you're going to have another ... inflation in asset prices."

"If you waited for them to do the LTRO in Europe  then you invested, in December, and you invested fast, you could take a lot of money. So we made a lot of money on that first move. Then it comes into April and the economy looks like it's going to be slowing. A week before the Greek election, put vols were at 13. They basically said to me, 'hmm we're not concerned about Greece, we're not concerned about the economy. why don't you have these put calls they're really almost for free.' We bought puts so we didn't have a loss in that drawdown. Again, we get into the next time, and Draghi is talking about this, that the other, talking about this put and boy he gave away this put ... we got invested. and that worked too. Then we got to this election and we said boy doesn't look like the market is going to be happy about this election because Obama is going to win, whether or not that was right or wrong, and they're going to be concerned about the fiscal cliff. We took down our position again. Now when the market went down again, we said, okay, what are we going to do now? Hmm, they're giving away call premium now. call volatility traded really cheap. We also got longer because the market came back down to 1350, 1360 and we viewed that as too cheap given what was likely to happen"

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