Monday, December 17, 2012

Ray Dalio at the DealBook conference

For Mr. Dalio, the world is in a great period of deleveraging. But he thinks that risk premiums could stand to be squeezed a bit more. At the same time, any expansion of risk premiums will generally be a negative development for asset classes as a whole. At some point, however, Mr. Dalio said that betting against corporate bonds will prove to be highly attractive. That time hasn’t come yet, he said.

Mr. Dalio says that within his firm, there’s a constant discussion about tactics, and where to be, and where not to be. “It’s hard to have a portfolio without bias, and have a very well-balanced portfolio,” he says, with too many people having a bias toward being long. That said, here’s what he thinks: 
There’s a place for gold. 
Equities will probably do better than bonds longer term 
Emerging markets will do well, with the squeeze on their currencies largely over.
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