Friday, February 3, 2012

Michael 'Novo' Novogratz (Fortress) likes EM FX

You're seeing emerging market currencies rally, broadly, all risk, all beta do better. And I think that story probably continues for a while ... Currencies we think will be a place where there's lots of opportunity, especially if, as I said earlier, kind of the risk premium trade stays low because we've got a lot of our assets in currency market, trying to invest in places like Mexico, Israel, the Asian currencies, the hard currencies. I think emerging market currencies will do well ... And so right now, with inflation coming down, I think you're going to see aggressive rate cuts around the emerging markets, which should give those markets a boost and those currencies a boost.

I think last week's Fed action is really important. If there was a story of, you know, kind of coming out of 2008, it's best encapsulated by the book that Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote, which talked about what happens after the credit bubbles.

And the first chapter, people kind of thought maybe it could be different this time. talks about people thought it could be different this time. And last year, probably by March, everyone had said, oh, my goodness, no way. We should have just listened to them in the first place. And I think what you're seeing now is kind of a delayed reaction where every central banker in the world almost is completely bought into their story.

And so when Bernanke said we're going to keep rates low until the end of 2014, three years is a long time in markets. I mean, it's an eternity. You're seeing all other central banks, you know, Stan Fisher in Israel, the Brazilians, the Mexicans - everybody's getting dovish.

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