You're seeing emerging market currencies rally, broadly,
all risk, all beta do better. And I think that story probably continues
for a while ... Currencies we think will be a place where there's lots of
opportunity, especially if, as I said earlier, kind of the risk premium trade
stays low because we've got a lot of our assets in currency market, trying
to invest in places like Mexico, Israel, the Asian currencies, the hard
currencies. I think
emerging market currencies will do well ... And so right now, with inflation coming down, I think you're going to see aggressive rate cuts around the emerging markets, which should give those markets a boost and those currencies a boost.
I think last week's Fed action is really important. If
there was a story of, you know, kind of coming out of 2008, it's best
encapsulated by the book that Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote, which
talked about what happens after the credit bubbles.
And the first
chapter, people kind of thought maybe it could be different this time. talks
about people thought it could be different this time. And last year, probably
by March, everyone had said, oh, my goodness, no way. We should have
just listened to them in the first place. And I think what you're seeing now is kind of a delayed
reaction where every central banker in the world almost is completely bought
into their story.
And so when
Bernanke said we're going to keep rates low until the end of 2014, three years
is a long time in markets. I mean, it's an eternity. You're seeing all other central
banks, you know, Stan Fisher in Israel, the Brazilians, the Mexicans -
everybody's getting dovish.
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