Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) made a bold recession call last year, and even in the face of improving US data, he is sticking to it (we at Price Signals also believe that in the US slowdown / recession story).
“Our call stands.When you look at the hard data that is used to officially date business cycle recessions, it has been getting worse, not better, despite what the consensus view of an improving economy has been.”
“You put all this [GDP, personal income, sales, and industrial production] — you put it into a coincident index of the U.S. economy and if you look at year-over-year growth of that index, it’s now at a 21-month low,” Achuthan said. “You haven’t had a decline like that in the past 50 years without recession following in short order.”
“Our call stands.When you look at the hard data that is used to officially date business cycle recessions, it has been getting worse, not better, despite what the consensus view of an improving economy has been.”
“You put all this [GDP, personal income, sales, and industrial production] — you put it into a coincident index of the U.S. economy and if you look at year-over-year growth of that index, it’s now at a 21-month low,” Achuthan said. “You haven’t had a decline like that in the past 50 years without recession following in short order.”
No comments:
Post a Comment