(HT Business Insider)
Note: I'm not a big Byron fan but his list always has comedic value and is widely followed in the industry. Byron got about half of his predictions correct in 2011 although he was far, far off on his S&P forecast (1500) and 10 yr yield (5%).
1. Oil declines to $85 a barrel: As shale gains greater share, oil drops to $85 a barrel and the U.S. becomes less dependent on the Middle East. Supplies in Poland and the Ukraine prove promising and production increases in Libya.
2. The S&P 500 heads above 1400: Earnings continue to grow at American corporates, with leaders taking advantage of reduced commodity prices and greater technological integration decreasing labor costs.
3. Real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment drops below 8%: A double dip recession and fears of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Consumers drive the economy and exports do considerably well.
4. Obama runs against Romney in 2012: Democrats win the House of Representatives, but Republicans reclaim the Senate.
5. Europe finally develops a long-lasting plan: The union stays intact. Greece restructures, Spain and Ireland right themselves, and Italy voluntarily restructures.
6. The computer becomes the new weapon of choice: Eastern European and Asian hackers find their way into the data centers of major financial powers, causing short-term bank closings. The G-20 meets to solve the problem.
7. Investors go long on currencies of prudent governments: Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea
8. Congress finds a way to cut $1.2 trillion over ten years: Defense and Medicare are scaled back, subsidies for agriculture are cut and tax deductions are modified. Obama promises to let part of the Bush tax cuts continue if reelected.
9. The Arab Spring finally matures: Bashar al-Assad's rule of Syria finally comes to conclusion when the Arab Spring gains greater traction. The ripple effects weaken Hamas and Hezbollah, while weakening Iran.
10. Emerging markets appreciate 15 to 20%: Even as emerging market economies slow somewhat from their heyday, indexes in Brazil, China and India gain more than 15%.
Note: I'm not a big Byron fan but his list always has comedic value and is widely followed in the industry. Byron got about half of his predictions correct in 2011 although he was far, far off on his S&P forecast (1500) and 10 yr yield (5%).
1. Oil declines to $85 a barrel: As shale gains greater share, oil drops to $85 a barrel and the U.S. becomes less dependent on the Middle East. Supplies in Poland and the Ukraine prove promising and production increases in Libya.
2. The S&P 500 heads above 1400: Earnings continue to grow at American corporates, with leaders taking advantage of reduced commodity prices and greater technological integration decreasing labor costs.
3. Real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment drops below 8%: A double dip recession and fears of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Consumers drive the economy and exports do considerably well.
4. Obama runs against Romney in 2012: Democrats win the House of Representatives, but Republicans reclaim the Senate.
5. Europe finally develops a long-lasting plan: The union stays intact. Greece restructures, Spain and Ireland right themselves, and Italy voluntarily restructures.
6. The computer becomes the new weapon of choice: Eastern European and Asian hackers find their way into the data centers of major financial powers, causing short-term bank closings. The G-20 meets to solve the problem.
7. Investors go long on currencies of prudent governments: Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea
8. Congress finds a way to cut $1.2 trillion over ten years: Defense and Medicare are scaled back, subsidies for agriculture are cut and tax deductions are modified. Obama promises to let part of the Bush tax cuts continue if reelected.
9. The Arab Spring finally matures: Bashar al-Assad's rule of Syria finally comes to conclusion when the Arab Spring gains greater traction. The ripple effects weaken Hamas and Hezbollah, while weakening Iran.
10. Emerging markets appreciate 15 to 20%: Even as emerging market economies slow somewhat from their heyday, indexes in Brazil, China and India gain more than 15%.
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