"I'm convinced that Europe is actually in recession today ... There is a meaningful and more substantial slowdown in China than the official statistics would suggest. At the present time there probably is hardly any growth at all, so that slows down the demand for industrial commodities. That then slows down the production in countries that produce industrial commodities. So you have essentially a chain, a vicious spiral going through the global economy, which means that corporate profits in the U.S. ... will disappoint"