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Thursday, June 7, 2012

Michael Lewis: "Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie"

Princeton University 2012 Baccalaureate:
"The "Moneyball" story has practical implications. If you use better data, you can find better values; there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on. But it has a broader and less practical message: don't be deceived by life's outcomes. Life's outcomes, while not entirely random, have a huge amount of luck baked into them. Above all, recognize that if you have had success, you have also had luck — and with luck comes obligation. You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods. You owe a debt to the unlucky."
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Ruminations
I'm an investment professional and have spent the bulk of my career in the investment management industry. I am a deep value investor, but I also move in and out of asset classes based on my macro outlook (typically 10-20 trades a year). I don't mind holding a big slug of cash even if it earns nothing in hopes of hitting that fat pitch (as I did in 2009). I've been watching our current economic train wreck with a mixture of fascination and dread. The pain is not over and the worst is still to come. Under a reckless Fed that has callously disregarded its duty to supervise the markets, we are slowly but surely heading towards a day of reckoning where we will see the global currency system realign, interest rates in the United States rise sharply, and our standard of living decline measurably.
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