Price Signals

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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Martin Hutchinson:The profits bubble

At some point therefore, the end of present Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's misguided monetary policy (probably triggered by an unpleasant burst of inflation accompanied by insanely high oil and commodity prices) will cause corporate earnings to revert to their long-term average, losing their current 55% premium and returning stock prices even on their current fairly elevated P/E ratio to around the 1995-equivalent level of 8,100 on the Dow.Add to that a decline in the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 Index to 10 times, and you get a value on the S&P 500 Index of 589, equivalent to perhaps 5,500 on the Dow.
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I'm an investment professional and have spent the bulk of my career in the investment management industry. I am a deep value investor, but I also move in and out of asset classes based on my macro outlook (typically 10-20 trades a year). I don't mind holding a big slug of cash even if it earns nothing in hopes of hitting that fat pitch (as I did in 2009). I've been watching our current economic train wreck with a mixture of fascination and dread. The pain is not over and the worst is still to come. Under a reckless Fed that has callously disregarded its duty to supervise the markets, we are slowly but surely heading towards a day of reckoning where we will see the global currency system realign, interest rates in the United States rise sharply, and our standard of living decline measurably.
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